iPhone season is the worst time of year

Fall is almost here, and with it, the silliest season of them all. No, the Macalope is not talking about the ongoing reign of terror of pumpkin spice-flavored… well, everything. He’s talking about the endless speculation, handwringing, and violent disagreement spilling onto the streets about the relative success of the current year’s iPhone models.

Let’s do it again! Ming-Chi Kuo kicks off this year’s festivities:

The first weekend pre-order demand for the iPhone 17 series is stronger than last year’s iPhone 16.

Ming-Chi Kuo

A casual observer who has not attended this particular circus before might think that’s great news for Apple, but let’s remember a few things here. First, these are just Kuo’s estimates. Kuo’s estimates are certainly worth more than those of others, but expect more than one analyst to bust through the door in a week, out of breath and claiming that iPhone sales are flat or down or somehow diagonal from where they were last year.

Even Kuo has bad news for Apple, of which there must always be some, suggesting that the iPhone Air is still readily available for order, meaning it’s a total loser that everyone hates, and Apple has messed up big time by trying to make a thinner phone. To be clear, Kuo’s not saying that, but someone surely will. Just give them five minutes.

Look, this is not the horny one’s first rodeo, or even his second or third. It’s been a lot of rodeos and a lot of clowns. Also, a fair amount of bull. Having seen all these rodeos, the Macalope knows there is another way that high initial sales will eventually become “bad news” for Apple. And that is when, in a few months, the company inevitably cuts back production and you’ll see headlines of MASSIVE IPHONE PRODUCTION CUTS! None of this should be surprising because iPhone production is highest for launch, and Apple doesn’t need to keep making a bazillion phones for the rest of the year, but somehow every year the same people act like it is. Pundits will gasp and point their fingers at the production cuts, the hugest ever, and imply they clearly indicate what losers these new phones are.

The Macalope isn’t arguing that the iPhone 17 lineup is the ultimate bee’s knees, the maximum cat’s pajamas, the pinnacle of the manticore’s silky underthings–whoops that was supposed to only be between the Macalope and the manticore. (Because that was the only thing between the Macalope and the manticore, if you know what he’s saying.)

They’re fine smartphones. But smartphones across the board have largely reached a state of steady, continuous but modest improvement. The iPhone 17 Air is the only device that lightly bumps the cart a bit, and if Kuo’s assessment is correct, it might be that bumping the cart isn’t what customers want.

If the rumors are correct, the cart ride will get a little bumpier next year when Apple presumably takes an iPhone Air and bends it in half like a street magician to release a foldable, which will cost, let’s face it, kind of a lot.

Ugh, yes, fine, it’s an apple cart. The Macalope was trying to avoid the pun, but you kept looking at him with those Milhouse eyebrows.

Honestly, you’re exhausting sometimes.

The Macalope supposes then that this silly season is a bit like the calm before the storm. Speculation about the performance of the iPhone 17 Air will pale in comparison to what happens when Apple ships a foldable and also rejiggers its schedule, moving the lower-end phones to spring, as it is expected to do.

Looks like the Macalope picked the wrong decade to quit wading into the ocean and disappearing forever.